Today in the Market (6/14/2023)

Good Evening! On Wednesday, there was great anticipation for the Federal Reverse decision on interest rate hikes. The policymakers opted to temporarily suspend their campaign of interest-rate-hikes, while also indicating their intention to pursue further rate increases in the future.

The three indices were mixed today with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite seeing small gains of 0.08% and 0.39%, respectively. The Dow Jones went in the opposite direction falling by 0.68%.

WHO WILL END THE YEAR ON TOP?

Constellation Brands’ (STZ) beer has surpassed Bud Light (BUD) as the top-selling beer. So what happened? Bud Light has faced a boycott from some individuals, including Kid Rock, due to its endorsement of a transgender TikTok influencer.

So, where does BUD now stand compared to STZ? Well According to Nielsen and Bump Williams Consulting… 

  • Modelo’s share in the US beer market amounts to 8.4% (from 7.5%) of the total retail sales.
  • Bud Light currently holds 7.3%, which Bud Light began the year with a 10.3% share.
  • Coors Light experienced a slight increase in its share, rising from 6.1% to 6.2% over the previous four weeks.
  • Miller Lite retained its 5.3% share of total sales.

It is not over yet. Although Modelo has experienced a recent surge and surpassed Bud Light in sales, BUD is still remains the highest selling beer brand for the year as a whole. According to data from the first 22 weeks of 2023, Bud Light currently holds the highest percentage of total retail sales in the US market, at 9.0%. Following closely behind is Modelo, with 8.0%, followed by Coors Light at 5.6%, and Miller Lite at 4.9%.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Source: Federal Open Market Committee

The Federal Reserve opted to maintain the fed funds rate within a range of 5%-5.25%, marking the central bank’s initial pause in over a year as its efforts to reduce inflationary pressures. In conjunction with its policy announcement, the Fed also shared revised economic predictions in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes its “dot plot” that outlines the anticipated trajectory of interest rates as perceived by policymakers.

So what does that mean? According to recent reports, Fed officials have revised their projections for the peak of the Fed funds rate to 5.6% for the current year. This implies that the Fed is expected to increase interest rates by 0.25% two more times, or alternatively, to implement a single 0.50% rate hike

What about 2024? According to the same report, officials have also revised their projections for interest rates to 4.6% by 2024. This figure is higher than the previously estimated rate of 4.3%, which was made in March. The degree of spread in the projections for next year’s rates was comparatively lower in the current month as opposed to the projections made in March.

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